last week's round-up, this week's calls.

another spate of decent calls last week methinks.
EUR/USD: we were bullish on the euro and, boy, didn't that baby go. We were left with a long white, which signals a continuation of the bullish tone. However, I'm ready to wait and see what happens in the next 24 hours or so. Ready to consider a long at this juncture only if price falls to 1.32
GBP/USD: there certainly was a pause in cable's downtrend last week and the ensuing bullish engulfing is a buy signal. However, fools rush in and I won't be looking to buy until price falls to around 1.42.
USD/JPY: we called a bear bias for last week and that's how things panned out. I'm looking to trade a 94-99 range this week.
USD/CHF: the previous week's bullish engulfing was engulfed in turn by the bears last week. You could try looking for shorting opportunities if price rises to 1.15 but beware the SNB.
EUR/GBP: This pair is paying out nicely at the moment. I'm still ready to buy but I am waiting for a bullish daily candle to close above 0.95 before jumping in again

Happy New Year!

along with the holiday distractions, I'm also in the middle of moving my family from Russia to the UK and I haven't had the opportunity to get down and update this blog. my apologies. however, I would like to thank every reader of colt on candles and wish you the very best for 2009.

let's just wrap up last week's calls: two good, two bad with the total rating a smidgeon into negative territory. here's how it breaks down:

eur/usd: the candles were bearish on the euro. however, it opened at 1.3914 and closed at 1.4057, that's 143 pips up on the week. This gives us a forecast rating of -1.02%

usd/chf: I thought the candles were dollar bulls on the swissy too. however, you may recall that I was more luke-warm about this signal than the euro one. in retrospect, I think that this was due to the ratio between the candle body length to the shadow length. in future I will only accept a long shadow signal if the shadow is longer than the body. anyhow, the reading/signal was duff and usd/chf fell some 360 pips, leaving us with a forecast rating of -3.37%

gbp/usd: sterling fell like the candles said it would. After opening the week at 1.4942, it closed at 1.4653, a drop of 289 pips. this leaves us with a rating of +1.97%

usd/jpy: as the candles suggested, the dollar opened the week at 89.14 and rose to 90.67, a 153-pip rise and a rating of +1.69%

all in all that gives us a forecast rating of -0.73 for the week, and makes our running total (12.63 - 0.73=) +11.90

since this week is almost over, I won't post any calls. I will be back, bright and breezy, for the first full week of 2009.

Happy New Year!

excuses, excuses

...it's been quite a week and I just didn't get a chance to add to the blog. I suppose that the web is littered with blog debris, projects that started full of hope only to crash and burn after a few posts. A few more dormant episodes like this week's could add CoC to that sorry list and only I can ensure it doesn't happen...

as I wrote last week the candles were only shining on one of the majors, gbp/usd:

gbp/usd (candles for 17-21 & 24-28 Nov) the weekly candle that closed on the 21st was an inverted hammer which is a weak bullish signal at the bottom of a move. The following week provided confirmation in the shape of a long white. the candles were saying sterling would rally but as we now know, they were wrong. cable fell 623 pips from Dec 1st-5th. That's a pretty significant -4.23%. Coo! this it leaves the Colt on Candles forecast rating at a somewhat diminished running total of +5.01%.

will the candles keep their heads above water? only next week can supply the answers. tomorrow we'll see what the candles foretell for the coming five days and a quick scan of the charts now shows that we have clear signals on two pairs: cable and dollar/yen. tomorrow's post will deliver the full lowdown.