last week's round-up, this week's calls.

another spate of decent calls last week methinks.
EUR/USD: we were bullish on the euro and, boy, didn't that baby go. We were left with a long white, which signals a continuation of the bullish tone. However, I'm ready to wait and see what happens in the next 24 hours or so. Ready to consider a long at this juncture only if price falls to 1.32
GBP/USD: there certainly was a pause in cable's downtrend last week and the ensuing bullish engulfing is a buy signal. However, fools rush in and I won't be looking to buy until price falls to around 1.42.
USD/JPY: we called a bear bias for last week and that's how things panned out. I'm looking to trade a 94-99 range this week.
USD/CHF: the previous week's bullish engulfing was engulfed in turn by the bears last week. You could try looking for shorting opportunities if price rises to 1.15 but beware the SNB.
EUR/GBP: This pair is paying out nicely at the moment. I'm still ready to buy but I am waiting for a bullish daily candle to close above 0.95 before jumping in again

plan for cable

...gbp/usd is on its way south after testing resistance around 1.4650. I'm waiting for a breakdown then retest of the gap at around 1.44 before selling below the breakdown low:

candles slide for the second week in a row

Looking back onto last week's calls, you may remember that the candles were bullish on usd/jpy and bearish on gbp/usd.
The yen call started well but as risk aversion set in during the second half of the week the yen strengthened and ate into a significant part of the bull move. With last week's open at 88.78 and the close at 89.82, we were left with a profit of 104 pips. That's a forecast rating of +1.16%

Cable had an upbeat reprieve after the previous week's slump. gbp/usd opened and at 1.3805 and climbed pretty steadily to 1.4491, leaving the candles 686 pips to the bad. A forecast rating of -4.73%.
The total for the week came in at -3.57%, bringing the running total down to +4.19%. Another week like that and we'd be close to zero once more.

However, as of this week I am changing the nature of the call and will be giving stop losses and take profits. If the call doesn't hit the limits before the week is out, the week's close will also close the trade. This means I'll be able to track the candle performance in pips. However, the downside is that my orders may muddy the waters a bit. We shall see.

the candles splutter as the franc freefalls

...not a great week for the candles, however the lion's share of the blame must be placed on my broad shoulders.
I mentioned last week that there was a lot of 'me' in the usd/chf forecast and the market rapped my knuckles as the dollar lost ground in the safe-haven stakes to the tune of 424 pips over the week. that's a forecast rating of -3.6%
gbp/usd fared a little better (if not much) as the dollar weakened acoss the board. sterling saw a 205 pip gain against the greenback (forecast rating: -1.37%). however, sterling's failure to break resistance at 1.50 in a week of particular dollar weakness must point to a weaker pound in the coming weeks.
usd/jpy moved in our direction with the dollar hitting 13-yaer lows against the yen on Friday. I expressed concern over possible Bank of Japan intervention which were not calmed when BoJ governor Masaaki Shirakawa said on Wednesday that he was watching the forex market carefully. By Friday the bank was playing down such speculation when Japanese finance minister, Shoichi Nakagawa said that the country wasn't considering intervention. usd/jpy fell 176 pips, that's +1.93%

This leaves our running total further diminished (but still in positive territory!) at +1.97%

excuses, excuses

...it's been quite a week and I just didn't get a chance to add to the blog. I suppose that the web is littered with blog debris, projects that started full of hope only to crash and burn after a few posts. A few more dormant episodes like this week's could add CoC to that sorry list and only I can ensure it doesn't happen...

as I wrote last week the candles were only shining on one of the majors, gbp/usd:

gbp/usd (candles for 17-21 & 24-28 Nov) the weekly candle that closed on the 21st was an inverted hammer which is a weak bullish signal at the bottom of a move. The following week provided confirmation in the shape of a long white. the candles were saying sterling would rally but as we now know, they were wrong. cable fell 623 pips from Dec 1st-5th. That's a pretty significant -4.23%. Coo! this it leaves the Colt on Candles forecast rating at a somewhat diminished running total of +5.01%.

will the candles keep their heads above water? only next week can supply the answers. tomorrow we'll see what the candles foretell for the coming five days and a quick scan of the charts now shows that we have clear signals on two pairs: cable and dollar/yen. tomorrow's post will deliver the full lowdown.