this week's calls

...reasonably pleased how last week's calls went with decent results on the swissy, cable and eur/gbp.
Now to this week's forecast:
EUR/USD: last week's long white brings a bullish tone to the world's favourite pair.. I won't be going long until I see a clear break of 1.30, mind.
GBP/USD: last week's spinning top is signalling a potential pause in the cable's current down trend. I'll be range trading initially within 1.37 and 1.43.
USD/JPY: another spinning top, but the lower highs and lows outweigh the longer lower shadow and I read a slightly stronger bearish bias. However, I'm still trading the range on this pair and looking for excuses to short above 99.25 with the reversal around 96.
USD/CHF: the SNB intervention left us with a bullish engulfing. You might try going long if price falls to 1.17, but I'd check out the action on EUR/CHF here, because that's the pair the gnomes in Zurich are worried about.

candles slide for the second week in a row

Looking back onto last week's calls, you may remember that the candles were bullish on usd/jpy and bearish on gbp/usd.
The yen call started well but as risk aversion set in during the second half of the week the yen strengthened and ate into a significant part of the bull move. With last week's open at 88.78 and the close at 89.82, we were left with a profit of 104 pips. That's a forecast rating of +1.16%

Cable had an upbeat reprieve after the previous week's slump. gbp/usd opened and at 1.3805 and climbed pretty steadily to 1.4491, leaving the candles 686 pips to the bad. A forecast rating of -4.73%.
The total for the week came in at -3.57%, bringing the running total down to +4.19%. Another week like that and we'd be close to zero once more.

However, as of this week I am changing the nature of the call and will be giving stop losses and take profits. If the call doesn't hit the limits before the week is out, the week's close will also close the trade. This means I'll be able to track the candle performance in pips. However, the downside is that my orders may muddy the waters a bit. We shall see.

thanks Mike G + this week's calls

...your comment is much appreciated Mike. I am far from feeling discouraged and I share your belief in the value of candle analysis. The problem with the fundamentals is that there are so mony factors in play with intermarket influences in addition to the more obvious data releases. In the new year, I hope this blog will develop to make more precise calls (with orders) primarily based on the candles but bringing other technical features and the fundamentals into play.

this week we're looking at two calls, one bullish for eur/usd and the other bearish on usd/chf. full details to follow tomorrow.