Tuesday, February 24, 2009

trade closes even-stevens

...trade closed at break-even and eur carried on rising past 1.2770 and is testing 1.28 once more. Once again, I'm looking for signs of a continuing downtrend and will consider opening a position if the pair falls below and then retests 1.2660.

Monday, February 23, 2009

plan for cable

...gbp/usd is on its way south after testing resistance around 1.4650. I'm waiting for a breakdown then retest of the gap at around 1.44 before selling below the breakdown low:

1.27 tested & I wimp out.

...eur testing support @ 1.27; this level could prove a challenge. I'm bringing my stop down to break-even (1.2770):

position on eur

...placed this order just after 14:00:
Sell@1.2770; s/l@1.2834; t/p@1.26:

position opened at 14:30.

potential short on eur?

...eur gapped down on the open leaving a nice band between 1.28 and 1.2835 that is a likely zone of support and resistance. eur has just re-entered that zone from below. I'm looking for resistance to hold at 1.2835 and will then place an order to sell at 1.2780...

Sunday, February 22, 2009

candle forecast for February 22-27

Looking at this week's forecast, I'd say the dragonfly on the eur points to upside action. However, I won't be entertaining a long position before I see a daily close above 1.30. If 1.30 offers strong resistance, look to go short with a target of 1.26.
Last week's spinning top suggests that sterling is also range-bound. As the trend is still down, I'm looking for downside action around 1.46 with a target at 1.41.
Last week's upside jpy action paid me well. However Friday's US banking jitters have left me looking for signs to go long around 92 with my sights set at 94.50.
Last week's chf candle was distinctly bearish. I'm waiting for a clean break of 1.15 before jumping in.

Sunday, February 15, 2009

this week's punt, courtesy of the candles

...not a brilliant week and I watched as the two orders that triggered (jpy and gbp) both stopped out, costing me 212 pips.

Looking forward to this week:
the candles find eur in a range- I'm looking to short at 1.2950
they are bullish for usd/jpy and I plan to go long at around 90.50
the signs are bearish for gbp and I'd like to short at around 1.48 if possible.
Full details with charts to follow...

Sunday, February 8, 2009

orders placed

eur selling @ 1.3350; s/l @ 1.3530; t/p @ 1.28
gbp buying @ 1.4605; s/l @ 1.4470; t/p @ 1.5350
jpy buying @ 91.07; s/l @ 90.20; t/p @ 94.50

Calls for eur, gbp and jpy

A quick call to state this week's bias before the markets open in an hour or so's time.
We are looking for to short eur/usd and to buy gbp/usd and usd/jpy. Tomorrow's post will have full details of the candle analysis and orders.

Tuesday, February 3, 2009

eur trade stops out

eur/usd hit 1.3034 a couple of hours ago and our position closed at a loss of 229 pips. The pair had been rising steadily since the start of today's US session and broke 1.30 just after the release of a better than expected US pending home sales.
I'm waiting for a breakdown of 1.30 followed by pullback to short again.

Monday, February 2, 2009

candles say eur/usd to continue its slide

Only one call this week, we're bearish on eur/usd (order levels here) :

We taking the long upper shadow on last week's black as a bearish sign. Of course, the current run of weekly blacks and the fact that last week's candle could qualify as a bullish inverted hammer give food for thought. However, the fact that the body of the candle is totally below 1.30 convinces me to run with the bears. Only time will tell.

I'm out on the other majors. True, cable was well up last week and completed something between a bullish harami and a bullish piercing line. Only the fact that cable closed below the psyche level of 1.45 kept me out. I would consider going long after a breakout/retest of 1.45.
usd/jpy traded inside the previous week's candle. The pseudo-harami that we are left with might suggest upside action but the close below the key level of 90.00, means it's no go for me.
The upmove of the past month or so from usd/chf seems to be petering out. However, 1.15 needs to be broken down before I'm tempted.

candles slide for the second week in a row

Looking back onto last week's calls, you may remember that the candles were bullish on usd/jpy and bearish on gbp/usd.
The yen call started well but as risk aversion set in during the second half of the week the yen strengthened and ate into a significant part of the bull move. With last week's open at 88.78 and the close at 89.82, we were left with a profit of 104 pips. That's a forecast rating of +1.16%

Cable had an upbeat reprieve after the previous week's slump. gbp/usd opened and at 1.3805 and climbed pretty steadily to 1.4491, leaving the candles 686 pips to the bad. A forecast rating of -4.73%.
The total for the week came in at -3.57%, bringing the running total down to +4.19%. Another week like that and we'd be close to zero once more.

However, as of this week I am changing the nature of the call and will be giving stop losses and take profits. If the call doesn't hit the limits before the week is out, the week's close will also close the trade. This means I'll be able to track the candle performance in pips. However, the downside is that my orders may muddy the waters a bit. We shall see.

Sunday, February 1, 2009

candle calls February 2nd-6th

Here's my quick call for the coming week.
I'm bearish on eur/usd with an initial stop loss at 1.3005 and take profit at 1.2405.
Full details and the lowdown on the other majors to follow tomorrow.
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