Sunday, March 29, 2009

last week's calm before this week's storm?

Nothing nothing lost! Last week's dollar bear calls were not triggered so it was all quiet on the candle front.
Last week's dollar strength has given us a much different picture as we gaze into a week enlivened by the G20 summit, the ECB interest rate announcement and Friday's NFP.
EUR/USD: the euro did no more than trade within the previous week's range. Last week's key level around 1.32 still stands and price development at this level will give us a better idea on direction.
GBP/USD: Cable's gone bearish and I'll be looking for a signal to sell between 1.4350 and 1.44.
USD/JPY: last week gave us a bullish piercing lines. However, a dollar rise will be strongly resisted between 98.50 and 100.
USD/CHF: the swissy is trading in a range atm. Key levels are 1.15 and 1.1260

Thursday, March 26, 2009

E/G to make a break?

EUR/GBP is on the up once again. Yesterday's day chart completed a bullish signal (halfway between harami and engulfing). Early European trading saw the pair find support just above Tuesday's gap. Once price has broken .9380, I'm looking for a long opportunity above .94.

Sunday, March 22, 2009

last week's round-up, this week's calls.

another spate of decent calls last week methinks.
EUR/USD: we were bullish on the euro and, boy, didn't that baby go. We were left with a long white, which signals a continuation of the bullish tone. However, I'm ready to wait and see what happens in the next 24 hours or so. Ready to consider a long at this juncture only if price falls to 1.32
GBP/USD: there certainly was a pause in cable's downtrend last week and the ensuing bullish engulfing is a buy signal. However, fools rush in and I won't be looking to buy until price falls to around 1.42.
USD/JPY: we called a bear bias for last week and that's how things panned out. I'm looking to trade a 94-99 range this week.
USD/CHF: the previous week's bullish engulfing was engulfed in turn by the bears last week. You could try looking for shorting opportunities if price rises to 1.15 but beware the SNB.
EUR/GBP: This pair is paying out nicely at the moment. I'm still ready to buy but I am waiting for a bullish daily candle to close above 0.95 before jumping in again

Sunday, March 15, 2009

this week's calls

...reasonably pleased how last week's calls went with decent results on the swissy, cable and eur/gbp.
Now to this week's forecast:
EUR/USD: last week's long white brings a bullish tone to the world's favourite pair.. I won't be going long until I see a clear break of 1.30, mind.
GBP/USD: last week's spinning top is signalling a potential pause in the cable's current down trend. I'll be range trading initially within 1.37 and 1.43.
USD/JPY: another spinning top, but the lower highs and lows outweigh the longer lower shadow and I read a slightly stronger bearish bias. However, I'm still trading the range on this pair and looking for excuses to short above 99.25 with the reversal around 96.
USD/CHF: the SNB intervention left us with a bullish engulfing. You might try going long if price falls to 1.17, but I'd check out the action on EUR/CHF here, because that's the pair the gnomes in Zurich are worried about.

Thursday, March 12, 2009

eur/gbp's doji may well be signalling a pause.

Thursday looks like it's closing as a doji, perhaps signaling a correction for Friday. I'm raising my stop loss to 0.9200, meaning I'll be left with 150 pips in the bag if I get stopped out.

Wednesday, March 11, 2009

euro continues to strengthen against sterling

eur/gbp did the business (see patterns line up on the chunnel) on Monday morning and broke out of 0.9000. I got in at 0.9050 just after 10am . Price is now at .9260, I've got around 100 pips profit locked in and if I make 0.9500 before Thursday is out I'll be a happy man.
Nothing else exciting me atm.

Sunday, March 8, 2009

candle calls

Last week's doji on the euro leaves me still bearish on this pair and I'm looking to short a pullback from the 1.27 region. However, I'm also inclined to see how Monday pans out to give us a more clear direction before jumping in.
Cable's downside move last week leaves me more bearish and I'm shorting at 1.43, failing that I'll be shorting the week's first peak.
USD/CHF's spinning top was planted firmly in the 1.15-1.18 range and I'll be watching when price nears those levels once more to judge possible direction.
USD/JPY left us with a bullish spinning top last week. However, I'm going to hang loose, accept the indecision inherent in spinning top and see what the first hours of trading bring.

Saturday, March 7, 2009

doji on eur; spinning tops for the franc and the yen; downside action for cable.

Last week's calls:
The week left eur/usd sporting a doji, a classic sign of uncertainty. Price never rose high enough to hit my trigger at 1.2850, though you could have tried shorting the gap at 1.2696. Wednesday's 01:00 long black saw the next 11 hours or so trade inside and going long on the upside breakout would have been a good move.
My swissy forecast fared well, my first short at 1.18 broke even, while the second took me all the way down to 1.15 as predicted.
I didn't catch usd/jpy on the way up from 97. But as I said in last week's call, I expected the pair to encounter strong resistance at 100 and I sold the buck on the breakdown of 99 on Thursday morning to close the position at 97.
Left cable alone last week when it failed to hit my target to short.

Patterns line up on the chunnel:
On an aside (charting rather than candles), I am watching for an upside breakout on eur/gbp at around 0.9000. The level has been offering strong resistance for weeks now (this is most clear on the day chart), while the pressure has been ratcheting up in the shape of an ascending triangle. Over on the pair's hourly chart, we've had a descending wedge forming since January and price is closing in and could test the wedges resistance soon. A true breakout of of both resistance lines will find me buying the euro against sterling with a target in the region of 500 pips. There's some background on how the Lloyds TSB bailout could make the upside breakout a more likely event here.
Charts to follow if requested.

Sunday, March 1, 2009

last week's call & this week's too

... last week's forecast wasn't too far short of the mark imo. EUR found resistance at 1.30 and went down to test the target at 1.26. Downside action for cable kicked in around 1.46 but just fell short of the target at 1.41. I was long for usd/jpy and although price failed to fall to my trigger at 92, going long at 95 saw a tidy profit just shy of 98. I was a wee bit out on chf, however no downside break of 1.15 meant no short was opened.

...this week, eur/usd has turned slightly more bearish and I'll be looking for downside action within a range of 1.2850 and 1.25. the spinning top on cable will prompt me to look for opportunities to sell sterling against the dollar around 1.4370. usd/jpy was proudly bullish last week. this could well continue and I may try buying around 97 with a target just shy of 100. However, if the pair hit 100, I will be looking to short. usd/chf is range-bound and I'll be perking up when price action nears the boundaries of the range, that's 1.15 and 1.18.
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