Saturday, April 4, 2009

G20 boosts risk appetite - do ya feel hungry?

EUR/USD Last week's key level (1.32) proved key indeed. Price failed to break support at 1.32 on Monday and retested the same support on Wednesday. Boosted by G20 optimism and the ECB's less than expected rate cut, the pair tested 1.35 on Thursday and closed the week at 1.3484.
Last week left us with a bullish piercing lines. However, the crucial level this week will be 1.35. If eur/usd can break through that then you may consider going long (target: 1.37). The pair will also meet strong resistance at the 1.3735 (see the tweezers formed by candles for March 15-2o and 22-27). Look for a retest of 1.38 from above before opening a new long with a target a tad below 1.40. If the pair cannot overcome resistance at 1.35, a clear breakdown of 1.3350 could signal a short (target: 1.32).
GBP/USD gave me no signal to sell last week, which was just as well as cable was lifted to a week high of 1.4845. We were left a very bullish engulfing. However, expect massive resistance at 1.50 and set any targets accordingly. Also beware of a post G20 hangover, sterling could be particularly sensitive.
USD/JPY our long call on the piercing lines signal paid off and after initially falling to Forex Focus' support level , U/J battled through resistance at 98.50-100 to close the week above the ton. I'm waiting for a pullback/rebound of 100 to buy with a target in the 105 region.
USD/CHF Last week's crucial levels held. Last week's pattern was bearish (piercing lines). With the range I mentioned last week still holding, wait for breakdown of 1.12 before shorting.
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