Saturday, April 4, 2009

G20 boosts risk appetite - do ya feel hungry?

EUR/USD Last week's key level (1.32) proved key indeed. Price failed to break support at 1.32 on Monday and retested the same support on Wednesday. Boosted by G20 optimism and the ECB's less than expected rate cut, the pair tested 1.35 on Thursday and closed the week at 1.3484.
Last week left us with a bullish piercing lines. However, the crucial level this week will be 1.35. If eur/usd can break through that then you may consider going long (target: 1.37). The pair will also meet strong resistance at the 1.3735 (see the tweezers formed by candles for March 15-2o and 22-27). Look for a retest of 1.38 from above before opening a new long with a target a tad below 1.40. If the pair cannot overcome resistance at 1.35, a clear breakdown of 1.3350 could signal a short (target: 1.32).
GBP/USD gave me no signal to sell last week, which was just as well as cable was lifted to a week high of 1.4845. We were left a very bullish engulfing. However, expect massive resistance at 1.50 and set any targets accordingly. Also beware of a post G20 hangover, sterling could be particularly sensitive.
USD/JPY our long call on the piercing lines signal paid off and after initially falling to Forex Focus' support level , U/J battled through resistance at 98.50-100 to close the week above the ton. I'm waiting for a pullback/rebound of 100 to buy with a target in the 105 region.
USD/CHF Last week's crucial levels held. Last week's pattern was bearish (piercing lines). With the range I mentioned last week still holding, wait for breakdown of 1.12 before shorting.

Sunday, March 29, 2009

last week's calm before this week's storm?

Nothing nothing lost! Last week's dollar bear calls were not triggered so it was all quiet on the candle front.
Last week's dollar strength has given us a much different picture as we gaze into a week enlivened by the G20 summit, the ECB interest rate announcement and Friday's NFP.
EUR/USD: the euro did no more than trade within the previous week's range. Last week's key level around 1.32 still stands and price development at this level will give us a better idea on direction.
GBP/USD: Cable's gone bearish and I'll be looking for a signal to sell between 1.4350 and 1.44.
USD/JPY: last week gave us a bullish piercing lines. However, a dollar rise will be strongly resisted between 98.50 and 100.
USD/CHF: the swissy is trading in a range atm. Key levels are 1.15 and 1.1260

Thursday, March 26, 2009

E/G to make a break?

EUR/GBP is on the up once again. Yesterday's day chart completed a bullish signal (halfway between harami and engulfing). Early European trading saw the pair find support just above Tuesday's gap. Once price has broken .9380, I'm looking for a long opportunity above .94.

Sunday, March 22, 2009

last week's round-up, this week's calls.

another spate of decent calls last week methinks.
EUR/USD: we were bullish on the euro and, boy, didn't that baby go. We were left with a long white, which signals a continuation of the bullish tone. However, I'm ready to wait and see what happens in the next 24 hours or so. Ready to consider a long at this juncture only if price falls to 1.32
GBP/USD: there certainly was a pause in cable's downtrend last week and the ensuing bullish engulfing is a buy signal. However, fools rush in and I won't be looking to buy until price falls to around 1.42.
USD/JPY: we called a bear bias for last week and that's how things panned out. I'm looking to trade a 94-99 range this week.
USD/CHF: the previous week's bullish engulfing was engulfed in turn by the bears last week. You could try looking for shorting opportunities if price rises to 1.15 but beware the SNB.
EUR/GBP: This pair is paying out nicely at the moment. I'm still ready to buy but I am waiting for a bullish daily candle to close above 0.95 before jumping in again

Sunday, March 15, 2009

this week's calls

...reasonably pleased how last week's calls went with decent results on the swissy, cable and eur/gbp.
Now to this week's forecast:
EUR/USD: last week's long white brings a bullish tone to the world's favourite pair.. I won't be going long until I see a clear break of 1.30, mind.
GBP/USD: last week's spinning top is signalling a potential pause in the cable's current down trend. I'll be range trading initially within 1.37 and 1.43.
USD/JPY: another spinning top, but the lower highs and lows outweigh the longer lower shadow and I read a slightly stronger bearish bias. However, I'm still trading the range on this pair and looking for excuses to short above 99.25 with the reversal around 96.
USD/CHF: the SNB intervention left us with a bullish engulfing. You might try going long if price falls to 1.17, but I'd check out the action on EUR/CHF here, because that's the pair the gnomes in Zurich are worried about.

Thursday, March 12, 2009

eur/gbp's doji may well be signalling a pause.

Thursday looks like it's closing as a doji, perhaps signaling a correction for Friday. I'm raising my stop loss to 0.9200, meaning I'll be left with 150 pips in the bag if I get stopped out.

Wednesday, March 11, 2009

euro continues to strengthen against sterling

eur/gbp did the business (see patterns line up on the chunnel) on Monday morning and broke out of 0.9000. I got in at 0.9050 just after 10am . Price is now at .9260, I've got around 100 pips profit locked in and if I make 0.9500 before Thursday is out I'll be a happy man.
Nothing else exciting me atm.

Sunday, March 8, 2009

candle calls

Last week's doji on the euro leaves me still bearish on this pair and I'm looking to short a pullback from the 1.27 region. However, I'm also inclined to see how Monday pans out to give us a more clear direction before jumping in.
Cable's downside move last week leaves me more bearish and I'm shorting at 1.43, failing that I'll be shorting the week's first peak.
USD/CHF's spinning top was planted firmly in the 1.15-1.18 range and I'll be watching when price nears those levels once more to judge possible direction.
USD/JPY left us with a bullish spinning top last week. However, I'm going to hang loose, accept the indecision inherent in spinning top and see what the first hours of trading bring.

Saturday, March 7, 2009

doji on eur; spinning tops for the franc and the yen; downside action for cable.

Last week's calls:
The week left eur/usd sporting a doji, a classic sign of uncertainty. Price never rose high enough to hit my trigger at 1.2850, though you could have tried shorting the gap at 1.2696. Wednesday's 01:00 long black saw the next 11 hours or so trade inside and going long on the upside breakout would have been a good move.
My swissy forecast fared well, my first short at 1.18 broke even, while the second took me all the way down to 1.15 as predicted.
I didn't catch usd/jpy on the way up from 97. But as I said in last week's call, I expected the pair to encounter strong resistance at 100 and I sold the buck on the breakdown of 99 on Thursday morning to close the position at 97.
Left cable alone last week when it failed to hit my target to short.

Patterns line up on the chunnel:
On an aside (charting rather than candles), I am watching for an upside breakout on eur/gbp at around 0.9000. The level has been offering strong resistance for weeks now (this is most clear on the day chart), while the pressure has been ratcheting up in the shape of an ascending triangle. Over on the pair's hourly chart, we've had a descending wedge forming since January and price is closing in and could test the wedges resistance soon. A true breakout of of both resistance lines will find me buying the euro against sterling with a target in the region of 500 pips. There's some background on how the Lloyds TSB bailout could make the upside breakout a more likely event here.
Charts to follow if requested.

Sunday, March 1, 2009

last week's call & this week's too

... last week's forecast wasn't too far short of the mark imo. EUR found resistance at 1.30 and went down to test the target at 1.26. Downside action for cable kicked in around 1.46 but just fell short of the target at 1.41. I was long for usd/jpy and although price failed to fall to my trigger at 92, going long at 95 saw a tidy profit just shy of 98. I was a wee bit out on chf, however no downside break of 1.15 meant no short was opened.

...this week, eur/usd has turned slightly more bearish and I'll be looking for downside action within a range of 1.2850 and 1.25. the spinning top on cable will prompt me to look for opportunities to sell sterling against the dollar around 1.4370. usd/jpy was proudly bullish last week. this could well continue and I may try buying around 97 with a target just shy of 100. However, if the pair hit 100, I will be looking to short. usd/chf is range-bound and I'll be perking up when price action nears the boundaries of the range, that's 1.15 and 1.18.

Tuesday, February 24, 2009

trade closes even-stevens closed at break-even and eur carried on rising past 1.2770 and is testing 1.28 once more. Once again, I'm looking for signs of a continuing downtrend and will consider opening a position if the pair falls below and then retests 1.2660.

Monday, February 23, 2009

plan for cable

...gbp/usd is on its way south after testing resistance around 1.4650. I'm waiting for a breakdown then retest of the gap at around 1.44 before selling below the breakdown low:

1.27 tested & I wimp out.

...eur testing support @ 1.27; this level could prove a challenge. I'm bringing my stop down to break-even (1.2770):

position on eur

...placed this order just after 14:00:
Sell@1.2770; s/l@1.2834; t/p@1.26:

position opened at 14:30.

potential short on eur?

...eur gapped down on the open leaving a nice band between 1.28 and 1.2835 that is a likely zone of support and resistance. eur has just re-entered that zone from below. I'm looking for resistance to hold at 1.2835 and will then place an order to sell at 1.2780...

Sunday, February 22, 2009

candle forecast for February 22-27

Looking at this week's forecast, I'd say the dragonfly on the eur points to upside action. However, I won't be entertaining a long position before I see a daily close above 1.30. If 1.30 offers strong resistance, look to go short with a target of 1.26.
Last week's spinning top suggests that sterling is also range-bound. As the trend is still down, I'm looking for downside action around 1.46 with a target at 1.41.
Last week's upside jpy action paid me well. However Friday's US banking jitters have left me looking for signs to go long around 92 with my sights set at 94.50.
Last week's chf candle was distinctly bearish. I'm waiting for a clean break of 1.15 before jumping in.

Sunday, February 15, 2009

this week's punt, courtesy of the candles

...not a brilliant week and I watched as the two orders that triggered (jpy and gbp) both stopped out, costing me 212 pips.

Looking forward to this week:
the candles find eur in a range- I'm looking to short at 1.2950
they are bullish for usd/jpy and I plan to go long at around 90.50
the signs are bearish for gbp and I'd like to short at around 1.48 if possible.
Full details with charts to follow...

Sunday, February 8, 2009

orders placed

eur selling @ 1.3350; s/l @ 1.3530; t/p @ 1.28
gbp buying @ 1.4605; s/l @ 1.4470; t/p @ 1.5350
jpy buying @ 91.07; s/l @ 90.20; t/p @ 94.50

Calls for eur, gbp and jpy

A quick call to state this week's bias before the markets open in an hour or so's time.
We are looking for to short eur/usd and to buy gbp/usd and usd/jpy. Tomorrow's post will have full details of the candle analysis and orders.

Tuesday, February 3, 2009

eur trade stops out

eur/usd hit 1.3034 a couple of hours ago and our position closed at a loss of 229 pips. The pair had been rising steadily since the start of today's US session and broke 1.30 just after the release of a better than expected US pending home sales.
I'm waiting for a breakdown of 1.30 followed by pullback to short again.

Monday, February 2, 2009

candles say eur/usd to continue its slide

Only one call this week, we're bearish on eur/usd (order levels here) :

We taking the long upper shadow on last week's black as a bearish sign. Of course, the current run of weekly blacks and the fact that last week's candle could qualify as a bullish inverted hammer give food for thought. However, the fact that the body of the candle is totally below 1.30 convinces me to run with the bears. Only time will tell.

I'm out on the other majors. True, cable was well up last week and completed something between a bullish harami and a bullish piercing line. Only the fact that cable closed below the psyche level of 1.45 kept me out. I would consider going long after a breakout/retest of 1.45.
usd/jpy traded inside the previous week's candle. The pseudo-harami that we are left with might suggest upside action but the close below the key level of 90.00, means it's no go for me.
The upmove of the past month or so from usd/chf seems to be petering out. However, 1.15 needs to be broken down before I'm tempted.

candles slide for the second week in a row

Looking back onto last week's calls, you may remember that the candles were bullish on usd/jpy and bearish on gbp/usd.
The yen call started well but as risk aversion set in during the second half of the week the yen strengthened and ate into a significant part of the bull move. With last week's open at 88.78 and the close at 89.82, we were left with a profit of 104 pips. That's a forecast rating of +1.16%

Cable had an upbeat reprieve after the previous week's slump. gbp/usd opened and at 1.3805 and climbed pretty steadily to 1.4491, leaving the candles 686 pips to the bad. A forecast rating of -4.73%.
The total for the week came in at -3.57%, bringing the running total down to +4.19%. Another week like that and we'd be close to zero once more.

However, as of this week I am changing the nature of the call and will be giving stop losses and take profits. If the call doesn't hit the limits before the week is out, the week's close will also close the trade. This means I'll be able to track the candle performance in pips. However, the downside is that my orders may muddy the waters a bit. We shall see.

Sunday, February 1, 2009

candle calls February 2nd-6th

Here's my quick call for the coming week.
I'm bearish on eur/usd with an initial stop loss at 1.3005 and take profit at 1.2405.
Full details and the lowdown on the other majors to follow tomorrow.

Tuesday, January 27, 2009

candle calls January 26-30

Now on to this week's calls. I made two on Sunday night when I said I was selling pound against the dollar and buying the dollar against yen.

Let's take a closer look:
gbp/usd: last week's long black smashed through long-standing support. We are bearish on cable this week.
support: 1.3500, resistance: 1.4370

usd/jpy: last week's long black formed an bearish engulfing with the previous week's short white. however, those long lower shadows and the tweezers which are formed by last week's candle and the similar long black of dec 15-19 suggest a bullish move for the pair.
support: 87.00 resistance: 90.00, then 92.40 and then 94.00.

candles burn my fingers

If you cast you mind back to last week (jan 19-23), you'll remember that we were selling usd/chf. this because resistance had held at around 1.1283 giving us a tweezers pattern of sorts which coupled with the spinning top of jan 12-16 seemed enough to get bearish (pretty tenuous in hindsight tbh). Anyhow, tenuous or not, the greenback had a good week against the greenback. It opened at 1.1140 and closed at 1.1558 , moving 418 pips against us. That's a forecast rating of -3.62%

We were bullish on usd/jpy, mainly because of the weekly close above 90 and jan 12-16's bullish spinning top with a long lower shadow. However, this too was not to be. The pair opened at 90.99 and closed at 88.82, moving 217 pips aginst us. That's a forecast rating of -2.44%

The week's total rating came in at -6.06%, and reduces the running total to
14.98 - 6.06 = +8.92%

Sunday, January 25, 2009

What a week! (apologies)

It's been one hell of a week and I've been painfully aware that I have been lacking in the blog department.
I'll post a full report on last week's (crappy!) calls.
This week the candles are bearish on gbp/usd and bullish on usd/jpy.

Until tomorrow, cheerio.

Sunday, January 18, 2009

Quick call as the market opens...

The week's a couple of hours underway so this is a quick post to make my calls:
usd/chf sell
usd/jpy buy

the full details will follow tomorrow as per usual.


Saturday, January 17, 2009

the candles continue to edge ahead

...another positive week for our calls. the dollar gained against the euro as concerns for the integrity of the 16-nation unit grew as Greece's credit rating was downgraded and Portugal, Ireland and (most worryingly) Spain said to be on the watch list. The ECB cut rates by the anticipated 50 bps to 2.00%. this precipitated further euro weakness perhaps because it's seen as too little too late or because Jean-Claude Trichet cued up another round of cuts for his March rendezvous. eur/usd recovered somewhat on Friday when the Bank of America was thrown another US government lifeline, bringing some much needed optimism to the markets.
With eur/usd opening the week at 1.3455 and closing on Friday at 1.3288, our short call brought in 167 pips. This gives us a forecast rating of +1.26%

Our buy call for usd/chf saw modest success with the pair opening at 1.1135 and closing at 1.1170. This brought a princely 35 pips into the pot. 35 pip is 0.31% of the closing price and thus gives us a forecast rating of +0.31%

All in all, the week's forecast total is +1.57%

Bringing our running total to +14.98%

Next week will be a difficult one to call with the Martin Luther King Day holiday and Barack Obama's inauguration bringing uncertainty to the markets. I'll be posting the candle signals tomorrow - until then, have a good weekend.

Thursday, January 15, 2009

e-book from Nick B

Here's something that's well worth a look, Nick B's ebook on master candles. At 17 pages, the book is clear, concise and very useful for anyone wanting to learn more about candlestick analysis.

Monday, January 12, 2009

calls for eur and chf, week January 12-16

...let's have a closer look at the signals I mentioned yesterday:

eur/usd (jan 5-9): this long black continues last week's euro bear signal and we'll continue to sell the 16-nation (hello slovakia!) unit.

forecast: the candles say that eur is a southbound train.

support: 1.3200
resistance: 1.3750

usd/jpy (dec 29-jan 2; jan 5-9): this two-candle pattern is a bearish piercing line and the long upper shadow on the black gives it extra kick. however, last week's close above 90.00 made us wary that the BoJ would be setting its intervention rumour-mill going once again. which means we're sitting on our hands.

forecast: we're afraid of the big bad bank!


usd/chf (dec 22-26; dec 29-jan 2; jan 5-9) last week's long white gives weight to the previous week's hammer and closes above the long black of christmas week. it's a bull signal, though that longish upper shadow makes us a wee bit nervous.

greenback to strengthen against the franc


gbp/usd (17 nov-9 jan): this pic shows the range that cable has been trading inside for the last two months. I'm setting the boundaries of the range as the open of the long black (10-14 nov) and the close of the spinning top two weeks ago (29 dec-2 jan), giving us a top of 1.5770 and a bottom of 1.4499. It's difficult to see us getting a weekly signal until there's a clear day breakout of this range. However, the range provides good opportunities for intra-day trading once price tests either support or resistance.

forecast: We're holding fire.
resistance: 1.5770

Sunday, January 11, 2009

candle calls for the week

...just a quick post to make this week's calls as the markets open. the candles are short on eur/usd and long on usd/chf, so we're dollar bulls again. we're sitting on the fence with cable and usd/jpy. full details to follow tomorrow.

Friday, January 9, 2009

yen and euro calls reviewed

...the candles were dollar bulls on both eur/usd and usd/jpy this past week. the close of the week sees one good call (sell eur/usd) and one bad (buy usd/jpy). however, the balance sees our weekly forecast rating in positive territory.

the recently rampant euro struggled against most currencies this week, most notably falling the most against sterling since the euro's inception 10 years ago. the dollar was no exception: the euro opened the week at 1.3905 and promptly started falling to hit 1.3311, only to rise again against a backgound of weak US data, closely followed by the FOMC meeting minutes which showed the Fed in a distinctly downbeat mood. the rise continued until US NFP came in less worse than many on the floor feared. the dollar strengthened accordingly to close the week 476 pips down on the week at 1.3429. this gives a forecast rating of +3.54%
usd/jpy also kicked the week off in the right direction, but the move was scuppered on Tuesday too. Friday's NFP couldn't do enough and the pair fell 184 pips over the week to close at 90.22, leaving us with a forecast rating of -2.03%

the rating total for the week is, therfore (3.54 - 2.03) +1.51%, which makes the running total (11.90 + 1.51) +13.41%.

Saturday, January 3, 2009

following the candles into 2009

...the new year opens to the first full trading week of the year and the candles shine out against the gloom predicted by pundits in all camps. the events of the coming year are way beyond the scope of this blog, however, the candles do have something to say about the coming week. i spy dollar bulls on eur and jpy, while the candles flag caution on chf and gbp.

let's take a closer look:
usd/jpy (dec 15-19; dec 22-26 & dec 29-jan 2) that long lower shadow on the black adds strength to the harami reversal signal from the black and the following white. last week's white adds further confirmation.

forecast: these three candles point to further yen weakness. however, I'll be waiting for a clean breakout of 92.60 before making a move.
support: 90.85
: 94.40

eur/usd (dec 22-26 & dec 29-jan 2) this bearish engulfing could well spell a euro reversal around the key psychological level of 1.40 and the black candle's long upper shadow brings more force to the argument.

the candles are telling me to sell the euro.
resistance: 1.4080
support: 1.3570

usd/chf (dec 15-19; dec 22-26 & dec 29-jan 2) the two long lower shadows of the first and third candles form tweezers (or as near as dammit!) testing support at around 1.0500. last week's dollar up-move against the franc wasn't strong enough to anticipate more dollar strength this week. I shall sit tight and wait for a breakout of the range of the dec 15-19 candle.

forecast: wait-and-see: the swissy is taking a breather.
support: 1.0500
resistance: 1.1200

gbp/usd (dec 29-jan 2) although sterling seems set for more weakness in the coming weeks this spinning top at the key psych level 0f 1.45 is giving me food for thought.

forecast: spinning top signals uncertainty so there's no call on cable this week.
support: after 1.45, look for 1.40 and then down to 1.3330
resistance: 1.4930
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