Saturday, April 4, 2009

G20 boosts risk appetite - do ya feel hungry?

EUR/USD Last week's key level (1.32) proved key indeed. Price failed to break support at 1.32 on Monday and retested the same support on Wednesday. Boosted by G20 optimism and the ECB's less than expected rate cut, the pair tested 1.35 on Thursday and closed the week at 1.3484.
Last week left us with a bullish piercing lines. However, the crucial level this week will be 1.35. If eur/usd can break through that then you may consider going long (target: 1.37). The pair will also meet strong resistance at the 1.3735 (see the tweezers formed by candles for March 15-2o and 22-27). Look for a retest of 1.38 from above before opening a new long with a target a tad below 1.40. If the pair cannot overcome resistance at 1.35, a clear breakdown of 1.3350 could signal a short (target: 1.32).
GBP/USD gave me no signal to sell last week, which was just as well as cable was lifted to a week high of 1.4845. We were left a very bullish engulfing. However, expect massive resistance at 1.50 and set any targets accordingly. Also beware of a post G20 hangover, sterling could be particularly sensitive.
USD/JPY our long call on the piercing lines signal paid off and after initially falling to Forex Focus' support level , U/J battled through resistance at 98.50-100 to close the week above the ton. I'm waiting for a pullback/rebound of 100 to buy with a target in the 105 region.
USD/CHF Last week's crucial levels held. Last week's pattern was bearish (piercing lines). With the range I mentioned last week still holding, wait for breakdown of 1.12 before shorting.

Sunday, March 29, 2009

last week's calm before this week's storm?

Nothing nothing lost! Last week's dollar bear calls were not triggered so it was all quiet on the candle front.
Last week's dollar strength has given us a much different picture as we gaze into a week enlivened by the G20 summit, the ECB interest rate announcement and Friday's NFP.
EUR/USD: the euro did no more than trade within the previous week's range. Last week's key level around 1.32 still stands and price development at this level will give us a better idea on direction.
GBP/USD: Cable's gone bearish and I'll be looking for a signal to sell between 1.4350 and 1.44.
USD/JPY: last week gave us a bullish piercing lines. However, a dollar rise will be strongly resisted between 98.50 and 100.
USD/CHF: the swissy is trading in a range atm. Key levels are 1.15 and 1.1260

Thursday, March 26, 2009

E/G to make a break?

EUR/GBP is on the up once again. Yesterday's day chart completed a bullish signal (halfway between harami and engulfing). Early European trading saw the pair find support just above Tuesday's gap. Once price has broken .9380, I'm looking for a long opportunity above .94.

Sunday, March 22, 2009

last week's round-up, this week's calls.

another spate of decent calls last week methinks.
EUR/USD: we were bullish on the euro and, boy, didn't that baby go. We were left with a long white, which signals a continuation of the bullish tone. However, I'm ready to wait and see what happens in the next 24 hours or so. Ready to consider a long at this juncture only if price falls to 1.32
GBP/USD: there certainly was a pause in cable's downtrend last week and the ensuing bullish engulfing is a buy signal. However, fools rush in and I won't be looking to buy until price falls to around 1.42.
USD/JPY: we called a bear bias for last week and that's how things panned out. I'm looking to trade a 94-99 range this week.
USD/CHF: the previous week's bullish engulfing was engulfed in turn by the bears last week. You could try looking for shorting opportunities if price rises to 1.15 but beware the SNB.
EUR/GBP: This pair is paying out nicely at the moment. I'm still ready to buy but I am waiting for a bullish daily candle to close above 0.95 before jumping in again

Sunday, March 15, 2009

this week's calls

...reasonably pleased how last week's calls went with decent results on the swissy, cable and eur/gbp.
Now to this week's forecast:
EUR/USD: last week's long white brings a bullish tone to the world's favourite pair.. I won't be going long until I see a clear break of 1.30, mind.
GBP/USD: last week's spinning top is signalling a potential pause in the cable's current down trend. I'll be range trading initially within 1.37 and 1.43.
USD/JPY: another spinning top, but the lower highs and lows outweigh the longer lower shadow and I read a slightly stronger bearish bias. However, I'm still trading the range on this pair and looking for excuses to short above 99.25 with the reversal around 96.
USD/CHF: the SNB intervention left us with a bullish engulfing. You might try going long if price falls to 1.17, but I'd check out the action on EUR/CHF here, because that's the pair the gnomes in Zurich are worried about.

Thursday, March 12, 2009

eur/gbp's doji may well be signalling a pause.

Thursday looks like it's closing as a doji, perhaps signaling a correction for Friday. I'm raising my stop loss to 0.9200, meaning I'll be left with 150 pips in the bag if I get stopped out.

Wednesday, March 11, 2009

euro continues to strengthen against sterling

eur/gbp did the business (see patterns line up on the chunnel) on Monday morning and broke out of 0.9000. I got in at 0.9050 just after 10am . Price is now at .9260, I've got around 100 pips profit locked in and if I make 0.9500 before Thursday is out I'll be a happy man.
Nothing else exciting me atm.
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