Monday, December 15, 2008

candle calls for this week (calls on eur & chf)

...this week is the last full trading week of 2008 and should prove to be full of interest. the fed are ensconced behind closed doors as I write and will announce their interest rate tomorrow, 19:15 gmt. the consensus is for a further 50bps cut to 0.50%.
the other big story this week will no doubt be the US Treasury's move to save the US auto industry from collapse. it's all very vague at the moment and this week should see the answers to the main questions:
how much?
from where? (george w said that using the tarp funds was a 'possibility')
and for how long? (most likely until obama takes the helm) I was saying yesterday we've two calls:
eur/usd (dec 1-5 & dec 8-12): last week's long white confirmed the doji of the week before and could possibly mark the breakout of the narrowing range that eur/usd has been trading in for the last 6 0r so weeks.

forecast: the euro looks set to continue its recovery.
resistance: 1.3645

usd/chf (dec 8-12): the franc woke up and last week's impressive long black leads us to expect more downside action this week.

forecast: the candles remind us that december is often difficult for the dollar.


usd/jpy (dec 8-12) last week's long spinning top charts downside pressure as traders ran for cover. However, the dollar rally at the end of the week marked speculation that the BoJ would intervene to weaken the yen. Japan's finance minister left me no wiser on friday and that long lower shadow on the candle bodes caution.

forecast: the candles caution against pitting your account against the BoJ!

gbp/usd (dec 1-5 & dec 8-12): sterling tried to strengthen but couldn't break resistance at 1.50 and spent the week inside the previous week's range. Although the bias seems to be on the downside, the candles are holding their horses.

forecast: the candles are watching this ugly-contest with interest
support: 1.4660
resistance: 1.5150

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