Monday, November 24, 2008

forecast for week Nov 24-28 (calls on the yen and the swissy)

eur/usd 17-21 nov. the nut tightens and the tension mounts as the week forms another doji inside the range of the previous week. I'm still waiting for a clean breakout, now of either 1.30 on the upside or 1.24 on the downside.

forecast: the candles remind us of the virtues of patience

usd/jpy 17-21 nov. a beautiful black doji with lower highs and lows than last week's candle suggests a bearish sentiment is in order. it must be bourne in mind that the last bullish week (4 weeks ago) came on hints that the bank of japan was ready to weaken the yen if they saw fit. support: 92.50 resistance: 97.70

forecast: the japanese candles say that the yen should strengthen but the japanese central bank may disagree

gbp/usd 17-21 nov. This inverted hammer is a weak bullish signal and sterling's inability to close last week above 1.50 makes it weaker still. An inverted hammer always needs confirmation (higher volumes on up moves or divergence from stochastic) as well as a clean break out of 1.50. Cable will find support at 1.4550 and resistance after 1.50 at 1.5250.

forecast: will cable rise or will cable fall? we must wait, for only time will tell

usd/chf 17-21 nov. A long white as the SNB cut and usd powered through 1.20. Those long shadows do make one pause for thought, but this is a bullish candle. Support at 1.1880 and resistance at 1.25.

forecast: the candles echo the swiss national bank when they say buy the greenback.
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