Friday, January 9, 2009

yen and euro calls reviewed

...the candles were dollar bulls on both eur/usd and usd/jpy this past week. the close of the week sees one good call (sell eur/usd) and one bad (buy usd/jpy). however, the balance sees our weekly forecast rating in positive territory.

the recently rampant euro struggled against most currencies this week, most notably falling the most against sterling since the euro's inception 10 years ago. the dollar was no exception: the euro opened the week at 1.3905 and promptly started falling to hit 1.3311, only to rise again against a backgound of weak US data, closely followed by the FOMC meeting minutes which showed the Fed in a distinctly downbeat mood. the rise continued until US NFP came in less worse than many on the floor feared. the dollar strengthened accordingly to close the week 476 pips down on the week at 1.3429. this gives a forecast rating of +3.54%
usd/jpy also kicked the week off in the right direction, but the move was scuppered on Tuesday too. Friday's NFP couldn't do enough and the pair fell 184 pips over the week to close at 90.22, leaving us with a forecast rating of -2.03%

the rating total for the week is, therfore (3.54 - 2.03) +1.51%, which makes the running total (11.90 + 1.51) +13.41%.

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